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2. Counterfactual evaluation.

To evaluate an electoral system under some set of counterfactual conditions (such as if incumbents did not run for reelection or if campaign spending was the same for each party), follow the directions under Evaluation, in the previous paragraph. Then (without specifying a new YVOTE command) add an XNEW command following XVARS to indicate the factual or counterfactual conditions you wish to analyze. For example, say you wanted to gauge the partisan bias in an electoral system independent of each party's fundraising ability. You might run an initial evaluation with an explanatory variable (input with XVARS) representing the difference in spending between the two parties' candidates. Then you would run the counterfactual evaluation, with XNEW to replace the spending variable with a vector containing all zeros (so that the analysis will assume no differences in funding levels). Other variables would be identical in XVARS and XNEW. See below for the commands used to choose one or more desired forms of statistical output.



Gary King 2006-01-07