Gary King Homepage Previous: 2. Counterfactual evaluation. Up: Commands and Data Required Next: Statistical output.

3. Prediction.

To make predictions at the district level or the level of the electoral system, the basic model requires that you first estimate parameters by evaluating the most recent election for which you have data. To do this, use the commands defined in the Evaluation paragraph, above. You then must estimate the regression on these data (with a REG; command, or by running any of the analysis procedures to evaluate that election). Then clear all data from memory while indicating that you want predictions (using the YVOTE command), and define the same explanatory variables for the election you are predicting (with XNEW). (Do not use XVARS.) The coefficients from the evaluation run on the previous election will be combined by JudgeIt with the explanatory variables in XNEW to create your predictions. Thus, YVOTE clears all data from memory but not the estimated regression coefficients.



Gary King 2006-01-07