PROB [SAVE num] [{DELTA:val1 VBAR:val2}] {[READ val3 var1 var2
dataset] [val4 val5]};
and PROB WRITE;. When you use the val4 val5 version of this
command, JudgeIt will report the proportion of districts in the electoral
system with a probability of Democratic victory between val4 and val5. The READ val3 var1 [var2]
dataset; version of
this command allows you to indicate directly the districts in which you are
interested with var1, a variable with zeros for all districts that should
be excluded and ones or negative ones for those to be included. You should use
a
if you are interested in the Democratic probability of victory for each
district, and a
if you are interested in the Republican probability of
victory. If you include the optional var2, districts with var2=1
are deleted (this is especially useful if you use DELIF, since you can name the
same variable in both commands). The reported statistic is the proportion of
those districts in which the party for which you specified has a probability of
victory greater than val3. DELTA:val1 specifies the amount that the
actual or predicted average district is to be changed to simulate the
consequences of a statewide swing to a party (valid possibilities range from
to 1, but reasonable values are usually much smaller, such as
to
simulate a 5% statewide swing to the Republicans). The other way to simulate
the consequences of a statewide partisan swing is using VBAR:val2, where
val2 is the value of the average district vote you wish to specify.
The optional SAVE num command enables you to save the results of
each run. If you have a PROB WRITE; command at the end of your file,
Judgeit will all the print the results from each FREQ command in a convenient
table with averages.
Gary King
2006-01-07