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Format:

PROB [SAVE num] [{DELTA:val1 VBAR:val2}] {[READ val3 var1 var2 $ <$ dataset] [val4 val5]}; and PROB WRITE;. When you use the val4 val5 version of this command, JudgeIt will report the proportion of districts in the electoral system with a probability of Democratic victory between val4 and val5. The READ val3 var1 [var2] $ <$ dataset; version of this command allows you to indicate directly the districts in which you are interested with var1, a variable with zeros for all districts that should be excluded and ones or negative ones for those to be included. You should use a $ 1$ if you are interested in the Democratic probability of victory for each district, and a $ -1$ if you are interested in the Republican probability of victory. If you include the optional var2, districts with var2=1 are deleted (this is especially useful if you use DELIF, since you can name the same variable in both commands). The reported statistic is the proportion of those districts in which the party for which you specified has a probability of victory greater than val3. DELTA:val1 specifies the amount that the actual or predicted average district is to be changed to simulate the consequences of a statewide swing to a party (valid possibilities range from $ -1$ to 1, but reasonable values are usually much smaller, such as $ -0.05$ to simulate a 5% statewide swing to the Republicans). The other way to simulate the consequences of a statewide partisan swing is using VBAR:val2, where val2 is the value of the average district vote you wish to specify.

The optional SAVE num command enables you to save the results of each run. If you have a PROB WRITE; command at the end of your file, Judgeit will all the print the results from each FREQ command in a convenient table with averages.



Gary King 2006-01-07