Event Count and Duration Models and Applications
Event Counts
A series of methods that introduced existing,
and developed new, statistical models for event counts for political
science research.
- King, Gary. Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood
Theory of Statistical Inference, Cambridge, England and New York: Cambridge
University Press, 1989. Reprinted, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,
1998. (Michigan Press: Book | errata
sheet: PDF)
- King, Gary. Statistical Models for Political Science Event
Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for The Exponential Poisson
Regression Model, American Journal of Political Science, Vol.
32, No. 3 (August, 1988): Pp. 838-863. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- King, Gary. Variance Specification in Event Count Models:
From Restrictive Assumptions to a Generalized Estimator, American
Journal of Political Science, Vol. 33, No. 3 (August, 1989): Pp. 762-784.
(Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- King, Gary. Event Count Models for International Relations:
Generalizations and Applications, International Studies
Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 2 (June, 1989): Pp. 123-147. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- King, Gary. A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model,
Sociological Methods and Research, Vol. 17, No. 3 (February, 1989):
Pp. 235-255. (Article: PDF | Abstract:
HTML)
- King, Gary and Curtis S. Signorino. The Generalization
in the Generalized Event Count Model, With Comments on Achen,
Amato, and Londregan, a response to three authors in a
symposium on "Gary King's Generalized Event Count Model"
Political Analysis, Vol. 6 (1996): Pp. 225-252. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- Winkelmann, Rainer; Curtis Signorino; and Gary King. A
Correction for an Underdispersed Event Count Probability
Distribution, Political Analysis, (1995):
Pp. 215-228. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- King, Gary. Presidential Appointments to the
Supreme Court: Adding Systematic Explanation to Probabilistic
Description, American Politics Quarterly, Vol. 15,
No. 3 (July, 1987): Pp. 373-386. (Article:
PDF
| Abstract: HTML)
- Girosi, Federico and Gary King. Demographic
Forecasting. Princeton University Press, forthcoming 2008
(Book Manuscript: PDF) - see sections on dealing with
small death counts
Duration of Parliamentary Governments
A statistical model, and related work, that united two waring scholarly literatures.
- King, Gary; James Alt; Nancy Burns; and Michael Laver. A
Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary
Democracies, American Journal of Political Science,
Vol. 34, No. 3 (August, 1990): Pp. 846-871; Errata Vol. 34, No. 4 (November, 1990): P. 1168. (Abstract: HTML | Article: PDF | Data: ICPSR s1115)
- Alt, James E. and Gary King. Transfers of Governmental
Power: The Meaning of Time Dependence, Comparative Political Studies,
Vol. 27, No. 2 (July, 1994): Pp. 190-210. (Abstract: HTML
| Article: PDF | Data: ICPSR
s1115 )
- Alt, James E.; Gary
King; and Curtis Signorino, Aggregation
Among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from
Different Levels of Data, Political Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 1
(Winter, 2001): Pp. 21-44. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Software
- Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software, includes
several methods for count and duration analysis. (Website:
Zelig)
- King, Gary. COUNT: A Program for Estimating Event Count
and Duration Regressions, Versions 1988-2002, published as a stand-alone
program and as part of the Gauss Package by Aptech Systems, Kent, Washington.
(Software: HTML)
Related Data
- 10 Million International Dyadic Events coding conflict
and cooperation in international relations, 1990-2004, as evaluated by King
and Lowe (2003) (Website: Events
| Abstract: HTML)