Incumbency Advantage
How to Estimate the Electoral Advantage of Incumbency
- Proves that all previous measures of incumbency advantage in the
congressional elections literature were biased or inconsistent, and
develops an unbiased estimator based on a simple linear regression
model. Gelman, Andrew and Gary King. Estimating
Incumbency Advantage Without Bias, American
Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, No. 4 (November, 1990): Pp. 1142-1164,
(Abstract: HTML | Article:PDF | Data: ICPSR 06311)
- A general purpose method for analyzing multiparty electoral data,
including estimating the incumbency advantage.
Katz, Jonathan and Gary King. A Statistical Model
for Multiparty Electoral Data, American Political
Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 1 (March, 1999): 15-32. (Replication Data: ICPSR 1190 | Article: PDF |
Abstract: HTML)
- A generalization of the previous article, more practical for
larger numbers of parties (part of a symposium in the same issue of
Political Analysis).
James Honaker, Jonathan Katz, and Gary King. A
Fast, Easy, and Efficient Estimator for Multiparty Electoral
Data," Political Analysis, Vol. 10,
No. 1 (Winter, 2002): 84--100, (Abstract:
HTML | Article: PDF)
Causes and Consequences
- The first systematic evidence that constituency service
increases the electoral advantage of incumbency. King, Gary. Constituency Service and Incumbency Advantage,
British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 21, No. 1 (January, 1991):
Pp. 119-128, (Replication Data: ICPSR s1108 | Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- King, Gary and Andrew Gelman. Systemic Consequences of
Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House, American Journal of Political
Science, Vol. 35, No. 1 (February, 1991): Pp. 110-138, (Data:
ICPSR 06311 | Article:
PDF | Abstract:
HTML)
Data
- King, Gary and Bradley Palmquist.The Record of American
Democracy, 1984-1990, Sociological Methods and Research, Vol.
26, No. 3 (February, 1998): 424-427; and PS: Political Science and Politics,
Vol. XXX, No. 4 (December, 1997): 746-747; and ICPSR Bulletin, Vol.
XVIII, No. 4 (May, 1998): 1-3. (Website: ROAD)
- Gary King. Elections to the United States House of Representatives,
1898-1992. (Data: ZIP, ICPSR data set
number 6311)