International Conflict

• Theorizes, and provides evidence for the proposition, that the causes of conflict, theorized to be important but often found to be small or ephemeral, are indeed tiny for the vast majority of dyads, but they are large, stable, and replicable wherever the ex ante probability of conflict is large. Beck, Nathaniel; Gary King; and Langche Zeng. Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture, American Political Science Review, Vol. 94, No. 1 (March, 2000): 21-36. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Response to a comment on the article above. Beck, Nathaniel; Gary King; and Langche Zeng. Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski, American Political Science Review, Vol. 98, No. 2 (May, 2004): Pp. 379-389. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• The first independent evaluation of the efforts of the U.S. State Failure Task Force; introduces dramatically improved methods of forecasting state failure and assessing its causes. King, Gary and Langche Zeng. Improving Forecasts of State Failure, World Politics, Vol. 53, No. 4 (July, 2001): 623-58. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• King, Gary and Langche Zeng. When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference, International Studies Quarterly, 51 (March, 2007): 183-210,. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Evidence of the massive selection bias in all data on mortality from war (vital registration systems rarely continue to operate when war begins). Undertainty in mortality estimates from major wars is as large as the estimates. Murray, Christopher J.L.; Gary King; Alan D. Lopez; Niels Tomijima; and Etienne Krug. Armed Conflict as a Public Health Problem, BMJ, Vol. 324, (9 February 2002): 346-349. (The BMJ was once called the British Medical Journal.) (BMJ: Interactive | Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Concluding comment in a symposium on the analysis of dyadic international conflict data, with papers by Donald Green, Soo Yeon Kim, and David Yoon; John Oneal and Bruce Russett; and Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan Katz. King, Gary. Proper Nouns and Methodological Propriety: Pooling Dyads in International Relations Data, International Organization, Vol. 55, No. 2 (Fall, 2001): Pp. 497-507. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Methods to evaluate automated information extraction systems when coding rare events, the success of one such system, along with considerable data. King, Gary and Will Lowe. An Automated Information Extraction Tool For International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design, International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 03 (July, 2003): pp. 617-642. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML | 10 Million International Dyadic Events: Events )
• King, Gary and Langche Zeng. Explaining Rare Events in International Relations, International Organization, Vol. 55, No. 3 (Summer, 2001): Pp. 693-715. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• King, Gary. Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 2 (June, 1989): Pp. 123-147. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Epstein, Lee; Daniel E. Ho; Gary King; and Jeffrey A. Segal. The Supreme Court During Crisis: How War Affects only Non-War Cases, New York University Law Review, Vol. 80, No. 1 (April, 2005): 1-116. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)