Mortality Studies

Forecasting Mortality

• A method of forecasting mortality rates that allows one to include more biological, social, and demographic information and thus should forecast better; includes methods for including different explanatory variables in each regression, while still borrowing strength to estimate all together; shows that existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge. Girosi, Federico and Gary King. Demographic Forecasting, Princeton University Press, 2007. (Abstract: HTML | Book Manuscript: PDFs | YourCast Software Website: YourCast)
• American Age- and sex-specific mortality and life-expectancy forecasts for the next 25 years; shows how including the recent dramatic rise in obesity will wipe out much of the mortality gains from the decline in smoking. Gary King and Samir Soneji, The Future of Death in America, (Abstract: HTML | Paper: PDF)
• Girosi, Federico and Gary King, Understanding the Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method. (Draft: PDF)

Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality Rates

• A method for estimating cause-specific mortality from "verbal autopsy" data that is less expensive, more reliable, requires fewer assumptions, and will normally be more accurate.
• Gary King and Ying Lu. Verbal Autopsy Methods with Multiple Causes of Death, Statistical Science, Vol. 23, No. 1 (February, 2008): Pp. 78--91,, (Abstract: HTML | Article: PDF)
• Unbiased estimates of mortality rates from surveys about sibling and others' survival; explains and reduces biases in existing methods. Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gary King. Death by Survey: Estimating Adult Mortality without Selection Bias from Sibling Survival Data, Demography, Vol. 43, No. 3 (August, 2006): Pp. 569--585. (Abstract: HTML | Article: PDF)
• Evidence of the massive selection bias in all data on mortality from war (vital registration systems rarely continue to operate when war begins). Undertainty in mortality estimates from major wars is as large as the estimates. Murray, Christopher J.L.; Gary King; Alan D. Lopez; Niels Tomijima; and Etienne Krug. Armed Conflict as a Public Health Problem, BMJ (British Medical Journal), Vol. 324, (9 February 2002): 346-349. (BMJ: Interactive | Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)

Uses of Mortality Rates

• Forecasting the solvancy of the Social Security Trust Fund: Samir Soneji and Gary King, Statistical Security for Social Security (Abstract: HTML | Paper: PDF)
• A method to estimate total and within-group inequality in health (all prior research is about mean differences between groups). Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gary King. Measuring Total Health Inequality: Adding Individual Variation to Group-Level Differences, BioMed Central: International Journal for Equity in Health, Vol. 1, No. 3 (2002). Reprinted in Christopher Murray and David B. Evans, eds., Health Systems Performance Assessment: Debates, Methods, and Empiricism, Geneva: World Health Organization, 2003, Chapter 35, Pp. 485-496. (IJEqH: HTML | Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gary King. Determinants of Inequality in Child Survival: Results from 39 Countries, 2003, in Christopher Murray and David B. Evans, eds., Health Systems Performance Assessment: Debates, Methods, and Empiricism, Geneva: World Health Organization, Chapter 36, Pp. 497-502. (Article: HTML)
• Provides a rigorous and measurable definition of human security; discusses the improvements in data collection and methods of forecasting necessary to measure human security; and introduces an agenda to enhance human security that follows logically in the areas of risk assessment, prevention, protection, and compensation. King, Gary and Christopher J.L. Murray. Rethinking Human Security, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 116, No. 4 (Winter, 2002): 585-610. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• A Perspective article on the effect of the IMF on increasing turberculosis mortality rates: Murray, Megan and Gary King. The Effects of International Monetary Fund Loans on Health Outcomes, PLoS Medicine, Vol. 5, No. 7. (Paper: PDF, HTML | Abstract: HTML)
• Related research on international conflict: Website