Presidency Research & Voting Behavior

Voting Behavior

• Resolution of a paradox in the study of American voting behavior. Gelman, Andrew and Gary King. Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes are So Predictable?, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 1 (October, 1993): Pp. 409-451. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• A popular version of the previous article. Gelman, Andrew and Gary King. Party Competition and Media Messages in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns, in L. Sandy Maisel, ed., The Parties Respond: Changes in the American Party System, 2nd edition, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1994, Pp. 255-295. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• King, Gary; Ori Rosen; Martin Tanner; and Alexander F. Wagner. Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler, Journal of Economic History, 68, 4 (forthcoming, December, 2008) (Abstract: HTML | Article: PDF)
• Resolved for the New York Times a key controversy over the 2000 presidential election. Imai, Kosuke and Gary King. Did Illegally Counted Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election?, Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September, 2004): Pp. 537-549. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• The first extensive empirical study of the probability of your vote changing the outcome of a U.S. presidential election? Most previous studies of the probability of a tied vote have involved theoretical calculation without data. Gelman, Andrew; Gary King; and John Boscardin. Estimating the Probability of Events that Have Never Occurred: When Is Your Vote Decisive? Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 441 (March, 1998): Pp. 1-9. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Proves that the extensive debate between supporters of the direction and proximity models of voting has been based on theoretical specification rather than empirical evidence. Lewis, Jeffrey and Gary King, No Evidence on Directional vs. Proximity Voting, Political Analysis, Vol. 8, No. 1 (August, 1999): Pp. 21-33. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)

Presidency Research

• Small-n issues in presidency research, and how to resolve the problem. King, Gary. The Methodology of Presidential Research, in George Edwards, III, John H. Kessel, and Bert A. Rockman, eds., Researching the Presidency: Vital Questions, New Approaches, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, 1993: Pp. 387-412. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
• Brace, Paul; Christine Harrington; and Gary King. The Presidency in American Politics. New York and London: New York University Press, 1989. Paperback published in 1990.
• Demonstrated the possibility of doing quantitative research on the American presidency. King, Gary and Lyn Ragsdale. The Elusive Executive: Discovering Statistical Patterns in the Presidency. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1988. (Amazon: Book)
• King, Gary and Michael Laver. Many Publications, but Still No Evidence, Electoral Studies, Vol. 18, No. 4, (December, 1999): Pp. 597-598. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)