War, Death, and Public Health

Forecasting International Conflict and State Failure

The first independent evaluation of the efforts of the U.S. State Failure Task Force; introduces dramatically improved methods of forecasting state failure and assessing its causes. King, Gary and Langche Zeng. Improving Forecasts of State Failure, World Politics, Vol. 53, No. 4 (July, 2001): 623-58. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Theorizes, and provides evidence for the proposition, that the causes of conflict, theorized to be important but often found to be small or ephemeral, are indeed tiny for the vast majority of dyads, but they are large, stable, and replicable wherever the ex ante probability of conflict is large. Beck, Nathaniel; Gary King; and Langche Zeng. Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture, American Political Science Review, Vol. 94, No. 1 (March, 2000): 21-36. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Response to a comment on the article above. Beck, Nathaniel; Gary King; and Langche Zeng. Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski, American Political Science Review, Vol. 98, No. 2 (May, 2004): Pp. 379-389. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)

A method of forecasting mortality rates that includes considerably more information and thus can forecast better; includes methods for including different explanatory variables in each regression, while still borrowing strength to estimate all together; shows that existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge. Girosi, Federico and Gary King. Demographic Forecasting. (Abstract: HTML | Book Manuscript Draft: PDF)
Implements all methods in the book above. Girosi, Federico and Gary King. YourCast: Time Series Cross-Sectional Forecasting with Your Assumptions. Includes software and related materials for implementing the methods in the above manuscript. (Website: YourCast)
Provides the first unbiased estimates of mortality rates from surveys about sibling and other relatives' survival; explains biases in existing methods. Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gary King. Death by Survey: Estimating Adult Mortality without Selection Bias from Sibling Survival Data from Sibling Survival Data, Demography, forthcoming. (Draft: PDF)
Girosi, Federico and Gary King, A Reassessment of the Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method. (Draft: PDF)

Introduces the first method to estimate within-group inequality in health; all prior research is about mean differences between groups.

Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gary King. Measuring Total Health Inequality: Adding Individual Variation to Group-Level Differences, BioMed Central: International Journal for Equity in Health, Vol. 1, No. 3 (2002). Reprinted in Christopher Murray and David B. Evans, eds., Health Systems Performance Assessment: Debates, Methods, and Empiricism, Geneva: World Health Organization, 2003, Chapter 35, Pp. 485-496. (IJEqH: HTML | Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gary King. Determinants of Inequality in Child Survival: Results from 39 Countries, 2003, in Christopher Murray and David B. Evans, eds., Health Systems Performance Assessment: Debates, Methods, and Empiricism, Geneva: World Health Organization, Chapter 36, Pp. 497-502. (Article: HTML)

Provides the first rigorous and measurable definition of human security; discusses the improvements in data collection and methods of forecasting necessary to measure human security; and introduces an agenda to enhance human security that follows logically in the areas of risk assessment, prevention, protection, and compensation. King, Gary and Christopher J.L. Murray. Rethinking Human Security, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 116, No. 4 (Winter, 2002): 585-610. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Provides evidence of the massive selection bias in all data on mortality from war (vital registration systems rarely continue to operate when war begins). Undertainty in mortality estimates from major wars is as large as the estimates. Murray, Christopher J.L.; Gary King; Alan D. Lopez; Niels Tomijima; and Etienne Krug. Armed Conflict as a Public Health Problem, BMJ, Vol. 324, (9 February 2002): 346-349. (The BMJ was once called the British Medical Journal.) (BMJ: Interactive | Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Concluding comment in a symposium on the analysis of dyadic international conflict data, with papers by Donald Green, Soo Yeon Kim, and David Yoon; John Oneal and Bruce Russett; and Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan Katz. King, Gary. Proper Nouns and Methodological Propriety: Pooling Dyads in International Relations Data, International Organization, Vol. 55, No. 2 (Fall, 2001): Pp. 497-507. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)