Publications by Type: Journal Article

Presidential Appointments to the Supreme Court: Adding Systematic Explanation to Probabilistic Description
Three articles, published in the leading journals of three disciplines over the last five decades, have each used the Poisson probability distribution to help describe the frequency with which presidents were able to appoint United States Supreme Court Justices. This work challenges these previous findings with a new model of Court appointments. The analysis demonstrates that the number of appointments a president can expect to make in a given year is a function of existing measurable variables.
Seats, Votes, and Gerrymandering: Measuring Bias and Representation in Legislative Redistricting
Robert X Browning and Gary King. 1987. “Seats, Votes, and Gerrymandering: Measuring Bias and Representation in Legislative Redistricting.” Law and Policy, 9: 305–322. Abstract
The Davis v. Bandemer case focused much attention on the problem of using statistical evidence to demonstrate the existence of political gerrymandering. In this paper, we evaluate the uses and limitations of measures of the seat-votes relationship in the Bandemer case. We outline a statistical method we have developed that can be used to estimate bias and the form of representation in legislative redistricting. We apply this method to Indiana State House and Senate elections for the period 1972 to 1984 and demonstrate a maximum bias 6.2% toward the Republicans in the House and a 2.8% bias in the Senate.
The Development of Political Activists: A Model of Early Learning
Gary King and Richard Merelman. 1986. “The Development of Political Activists: A Model of Early Learning.” Social Science Quarterly, 67: 473–490. Abstract
An analysis of panel data reveals the unique importance of early learning to the development of political activism among Americans. A combination of two learning models– the frequently used crystallization model and the rarely analyzed sensitization model– is advanced as most appropriate for understanding political socialization and the development of political activism. The findings contribute to research on elite behavior and on the process of political socialization.
How Not to Lie With Statistics: Avoiding Common Mistakes in Quantitative Political Science
Gary King. 1986. “How Not to Lie With Statistics: Avoiding Common Mistakes in Quantitative Political Science.” American Journal of Political Science, 30: 666–687. Abstract
This article identifies a set of serious theoretical mistakes appearing with troublingly high frequency throughout the quantitative political science literature. These mistakes are all based on faulty statistical theory or on erroneous statistical analysis. Through algebraic and interpretive proofs, some of the most commonly made mistakes are explicated and illustrated. The theoretical problem underlying each is highlighted, and suggested solutions are provided throughout. It is argued that closer attention to these problems and solutions will result in more reliable quantitative analyses and more useful theoretical contributions.
Political Parties and Foreign Policy: A Structuralist Approach
Gary King. 1986. “Political Parties and Foreign Policy: A Structuralist Approach.” Political Psychology, 7: 83–101. Abstract
This article introduces the theory and approach of structural anthropology and applies it to a problem in American political science. Through this approach, the "bipartisan foreign policy hypothesis" and that "two presidencies hypothesis" are reformulated and reconsidered. Until now participants in the debate over each have only rarely built on, or even cited, the other’s research. An additional problem is that the widespread conventional wisdom in support of the two hypotheses is inconsistent with systematic scholarly analyses. This paper demonstrates that the two hypotheses are drawn from the same underlying structure. Each hypothesis and the theoretical model it implies is conceptually and empirically extended to take into account the differences between congressional leaders and members. Then, historical examples and statistical analyses of House roll call data are used to demonstrate that the hypotheses, while sometimes supported for the congressional members, are far more applicable to leadership decision making. Conclusions suggest that conventional wisdom be revised to take these differences into account.
The Significance of Roll Calls in Voting Bodies: A Model and Statistical Estimation
Gary King. 1986. “The Significance of Roll Calls in Voting Bodies: A Model and Statistical Estimation.” Social Science Research, 15: 135–152. Abstract
In the long history of legislative roll call analyses, there continues to exist a particularly troubling problem: There is no satisfactory method for measuring the relative importance or significance of individual roll calls. A measure of roll call significance would be interesting in and of itself, but many have realized that it could also substantially improve empirical research. The consequence of this situation is that hundreds of researchers risk heteroskedastic disturbances (resulting in inefficient estimates and biased standard errors and test statistics), are unable to appropriately choose the roll calls most suited to their theory (resulting in analyses that may not correctly test their theory), and often use methods that create more problems than they solve (resulting in selection bias, unrealistic weighting schemes, or relatively subjective measures). This article introduces a new method designed to meet these problems. Based on an application of Box-Tiao intervention analysis, the method extracts from observed voting participation scores the "revealed preferences" of legislators as a measure of roll call significance. Applying this method to roll calls from the U.S. Senate demonstrates the success of the method and suggests its utility in applied research.
Book Review of `Forecasting Presidential Elections'
Gary King. 1985. “Book Review of `Forecasting Presidential Elections'.” American Political Science Review, 3, 79: 855. Abstract

This is a book review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1983.