Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details From Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992

Citation:

D. Steven Voss, Andrew Gelman, and Gary King. 1995. “Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details From Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 59, Pp. 98–132. Copy at http://j.mp/2n6au5o
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Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details From Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992

Abstract:

Before every presidential election, journalists, pollsters, and politicians commission dozens of public opinion polls. Although the primary function of these surveys is to forecast the election winners, they also generate a wealth of political data valuable even after the election. These preelection polls are useful because they are conducted with such frequency that they allow researchers to study change in estimates of voter opinion within very narrow time increments (Gelman and King 1993). Additionally, so many are conducted that the cumulative sample size of these polls is large enough to construct aggregate measures of public opinion within small demographic or geographical groupings (Wright, Erikson, and McIver 1985).

These advantages, however, are mitigated by the decentralized origin of the many preelection polls. The surveys are conducted by diverse private enterprises with procedures that differ significantly. Moreover, important methodological detail does not appear in the public record. Codebooks provided by the survey organizations are all incomplete; many are outdated and most are at least partly inaccurate. The most recent treatment in the academic literature, by Brady and Orren (1992), discusses the approach used by three companies but conceals their identities and omits most of the detail. ...

Last updated on 04/06/2019