Presentations

How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it (University of Chicago) Thursday, November 7, 2019:

To deter gerrymandering, many state constitutions require legislative districts to be "compact." Yet, the law offers few precise definitions other than "you know it when you see it," which effectively implies a common understanding of the concept. In contrast, academics have shown that compactness has multiple dimensions and have generated many conflicting measures. We hypothesize that both are correct -- that compactness is complex and multidimensional, but a common understanding exists across people. We develop a survey to elicit this understanding, with high reliability (in data where...

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Simplifying Matching Methods for Causal Inference (University of Minho) Tuesday, October 22, 2019:
We show how to use matching methods for causal inference to ameliorate model dependence -- where small, indefensible changes in model specification have large impacts on our conclusions. We introduce methods that are simpler, more powerful, and easier to understand than existing approaches. We also show that propensity score matching, an enormously popular approach, often accomplishes the opposite of its intended goal -- increasing imbalance, inefficiency, model dependence, and bias -- and should be replaced with other matching methods in applications.  See ... Read more about Simplifying Matching Methods for Causal Inference (University of Minho)
How the news media activate public expression and influence national agendas (University of Minho) Monday, October 21, 2019:
This talk reports on the results of first large scale randomized news media experiment. We demonstrate that even small news media outlets can cause large numbers of Americans to take public stands on specific issues, join national policy conversations, and express themselves publicly—all key components of democratic politics—more often than they would otherwise. After recruiting 48 mostly small media outlets, and working with them over 5 years, we chose groups of these outlets to write and publish articles on subjects we approved, on dates we randomly assigned. We estimate the... Read more about How the news media activate public expression and influence national agendas (University of Minho)
Simplifying Matching Methods for Causal Inference Thursday, October 10, 2019:
We show how to use matching methods for causal inference to ameliorate model dependence -- where small, indefensible changes in model specification have large impacts on our conclusions. We introduce methods that are simpler, more powerful, and easier to understand than existing approaches. We also show that propensity score matching, an enormously popular approach, often accomplishes the opposite of its intended goal -- increasing imbalance, inefficiency, model dependence, and bias -- and should be replaced with other matching methods in applications.  See ... Read more about Simplifying Matching Methods for Causal Inference
How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it, at University of Minnesota, Thursday, September 12, 2019:

To deter gerrymandering, many state constitutions require legislative districts to be "compact." Yet, the law offers few precise definitions other than "you know it when you see it," which effectively implies a common understanding of the concept. In contrast, academics have shown that compactness has multiple dimensions and have generated many conflicting measures. We hypothesize that both are correct -- that compactness is complex and multidimensional, but a common understanding exists across people. We develop a survey to elicit this understanding, with high reliability (in data where...

Read more about How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it
How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it, at University of Michigan, Statistical Learning Workshop, Thursday, April 18, 2019:
To deter gerrymandering, many state constitutions require legislative districts to be "compact." Yet, the law offers few precise definitions other than "you know it when you see it," which effectively implies a common understanding of the concept. In contrast, academics have shown that compactness has multiple dimensions and have generated many conflicting measures. We hypothesize that both are correct -- that compactness is complex and multidimensional, but a common understanding exists across people. We develop a survey to elicit this understanding, with high reliability (in data where the... Read more about How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it
How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it, at University of Pittsburgh, Center for Research Computing, Friday, March 8, 2019:
To deter gerrymandering, many state constitutions require legislative districts to be "compact." Yet, the law offers few precise definitions other than "you know it when you see it," which effectively implies a common understanding of the concept. In contrast, academics have shown that compactness has multiple dimensions and have generated many conflicting measures. We hypothesize that both are correct -- that compactness is complex and multidimensional, but a common understanding exists across people. We develop a survey to elicit this understanding, with high reliability (in data where the... Read more about How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See it
How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See It, at Nuffield College, Oxford University, Thursday, February 14, 2019:

To deter gerrymandering, many US state constitutions require legislative districts to be geographically "compact" (and a similar requirement holds explicitly or implicitly for numerous political jurisdictions around the world). Yet, the law offers few precise definitions other than "you know it when you see it," which effectively implies a common understanding of the concept. In contrast, academics have shown that compactness has multiple dimensions and have generated many conflicting measures. We hypothesize that both are correct -- that compactness is complex and multidimensional, but...

Read more about How to Measure Legislative District Compactness If You Only Know it When You See It
How the news media activate public expression and influence national agendas, at IPSA-USP Summer School, University of São Paulo, Brazil, Wednesday, January 16, 2019:
This talk reports on the results of first large scale randomized news media experiment. We demonstrate that even small news media outlets can cause large numbers of Americans to take public stands on specific issues, join national policy conversations, and express themselves publicly—all key components of democratic politics—more often than they would otherwise. After recruiting 48 mostly small media outlets, and working with them over 5 years, we chose groups of these outlets to write and publish articles on subjects we approved, on dates we randomly assigned. We estimate the... Read more about How the news media activate public expression and influence national agendas
Big Data is Not About the Data!, at Nina Zipser's Freshman Seminar "Models of the World: Explaining the Past and Predicting the Future", Tuesday, November 13, 2018:
The spectacular progress the media describes as "big data" has little to do with the growth of data.  Data, after all, is becoming commoditized, less expensive, and an automatic byproduct of other changes in organizations and society. More data alone doesn't generate insights; it often merely makes data analysis harder. The real revolution isn't about the data, it is about the stunning progress in the statistical and other methods of extracting insights from the data. I illustrate these points with a wide range of examples from research I've participated in, including ... Read more about Big Data is Not About the Data!

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