Party Competition and Media Messages in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns
Andrew Gelman, Gary King, Sandy Maisel. 1994.
"Party Competition and Media Messages in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns".
In The Parties Respond: Changes in the American Party System, Pp. 255-95. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press.
Abstract
At one point during the 1988 campaign, Michael Dukakis was ahead in the public opinion polls by 17 percentage points, but he eventually lost the election by 8 percent. Walter Mondale was ahead in the polls by 4 percent during the 1984 campaign but lost the election in a landslide. During June and July of 1992, Clinton, Bush, and Perot each had turns in the public opinion poll lead. What explains all this poll variation? Why do so many citizens change their minds so quickly about presidential choices?
See Also
- [Paper] Book Review of `Forecasting Presidential Elections' (1985)
- [Paper] Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election? (2004)
- [Paper] Do Nonpartisan Programmatic Policies Have Partisan Electoral Effects? Evidence from Two Large Scale Experiments (2020)
- [Paper] Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment (2012)
- [Paper] Estimating the Probability of Events That Have Never Occurred: When Is Your Vote Decisive? (1998)
- [Paper] No Evidence on Directional Vs. Proximity Voting (1999)
- [Paper] On Party Platforms, Mandates, and Government Spending (1993)
- [Paper] Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler (2008)