Publications by Year: 1995

A Correction for an Underdispersed Event Count Probability Distribution
Rainer Winkelmann, Curtis Signorino, and Gary King. 1995. “A Correction for an Underdispersed Event Count Probability Distribution.” Political Analysis, Pp. 215–228.Abstract
We demonstrate that the expected value and variance commonly given for a well-known probability distribution are incorrect. We also provide corrected versions and report changes in a computer program to account for the known practical uses of this distribution.
The Importance of Research Design in Political Science
Gary King, Robert O Keohane, and Sidney Verba. 1995. “The Importance of Research Design in Political Science.” American Political Science Review, 89, Pp. 454–481.Abstract
Receiving five serious reviews in this symposium is gratifying and confirms our belief that research design should be a priority for our discipline. We are pleased that our five distinguished reviewers appear to agree with our unified approach to the logic of inference in the social sciences, and with our fundamental point: that good quantitative and good qualitative research designs are based fundamentally on the same logic of inference. The reviewers also raised virtually no objections to the main practical contribution of our book– our many specific procedures for avoiding bias, getting the most out of qualitative data, and making reliable inferences. However, the reviews make clear that although our book may be the latest word on research design in political science, it is surely not the last. We are taxed for failing to include important issues in our analysis and for dealing inadequately with some of what we included. Before responding to the reviewers’ more direct criticisms, let us explain what we emphasize in Designing Social Inquiry and how it relates to some of the points raised by the reviewers.
Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details From Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992
D. Steven Voss, Andrew Gelman, and Gary King. 1995. “Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details From Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 59, Pp. 98–132.Abstract

Before every presidential election, journalists, pollsters, and politicians commission dozens of public opinion polls. Although the primary function of these surveys is to forecast the election winners, they also generate a wealth of political data valuable even after the election. These preelection polls are useful because they are conducted with such frequency that they allow researchers to study change in estimates of voter opinion within very narrow time increments (Gelman and King 1993). Additionally, so many are conducted that the cumulative sample size of these polls is large enough to construct aggregate measures of public opinion within small demographic or geographical groupings (Wright, Erikson, and McIver 1985).

These advantages, however, are mitigated by the decentralized origin of the many preelection polls. The surveys are conducted by diverse private enterprises with procedures that differ significantly. Moreover, important methodological detail does not appear in the public record. Codebooks provided by the survey organizations are all incomplete; many are outdated and most are at least partly inaccurate. The most recent treatment in the academic literature, by Brady and Orren (1992), discusses the approach used by three companies but conceals their identities and omits most of the detail. ...

Replication, Replication
Gary King. 1995. “Replication, Replication.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 28, Pp. 444-452.Abstract

Political science is a community enterprise and the community of empirical political scientists need access to the body of data necessary to replicate existing studies to understand, evaluate, and especially build on this work. Unfortunately, the norms we have in place now do not encourage, or in some cases even permit, this aim. Following are suggestions that would facilitate replication and are easy to implement – by teachers, students, dissertation writers, graduate programs, authors, reviewers, funding agencies, and journal and book editors.

A Revised Proposal, Proposal
Gary King. 1995. “A Revised Proposal, Proposal.” PS: Political Science and Politics, XXVIII, Pp. 494–499. Article