Simulation-based estimates and projections of global, regional and country-level maternal mortality by cause, 1990–2050

Abstract:

Maternal mortality is a major global health challenge. Although progress has been made globally in reducing maternal deaths, measurement remains challenging given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. We developed the Global Maternal Health microsimulation model for women in 200 countries and territories, accounting for individual fertility preferences and clinical histories. Demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data were synthesized from multiple sources, including the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. We calibrated the model to empirical data from 1990 to 2015 and assessed the predictive accuracy of our model using indicators from 2016 to 2020. We projected maternal health indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country and estimate that between 1990 and 2020 annual global maternal deaths declined by over 40% from 587,500 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 520,600–714,000) to 337,600 (95% UI 307,900–364,100), and are projected to decrease to 327,400 (95% UI 287,800–360,700) in 2030 and 320,200 (95% UI 267,100–374,600) in 2050. The global maternal mortality ratio is projected to decline to 167 (95% UI 142–188) in 2030, with 58 countries above 140, suggesting that on current trends, maternal mortality Sustainable Development Goal targets are unlikely to be met. Building on the development of our structural model, future research can identify context-specific policy interventions that could allow countries to accelerate reductions in maternal deaths.