Event Counts and Durations
Statistical models to explain or predict how many events occur for each fixed time period, or the time between events. An application to cabinet dissolution in parliamentary democracies which united two previously warring scholarly literature. Other applications to international relations and U.S. Supreme Court appointments.
Event Counts
A series of methods that introduced existing, and developed new, statistical models for event counts for political science research.
The Generalization in the Generalized Event Count Model, With Comments on Achen, Amato, and Londregan.” Political Analysis, 6, Pp. 225–252.Abstract
. 1996. “
Statistical Models for Political Science Event Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for The Exponential Poisson Regression Model.” American Journal of Political Science, 32, Pp. 838-863.Abstract
. 1988. “
Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Theory of Statistical Inference. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Publisher's Version
. 1998.
Presidential Appointments to the Supreme Court: Adding Systematic Explanation to Probabilistic Description.” American Politics Quarterly, 15, Pp. 373–386.Abstract
. 1987. “
A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model.” Sociological Methods and Research, 17, Pp. 235–255.Abstract
. 1989. “
Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications.” International Studies Quarterly, 33, Pp. 123–147.Abstract
. 1989. “
Variance Specification in Event Count Models: From Restrictive Assumptions to a Generalized Estimator.” American Journal of Political Science, 33, Pp. 762–784.Abstract
. 1989. “
A Correction for an Underdispersed Event Count Probability Distribution.” Political Analysis, Pp. 215–228.Abstract
. 1995. “
Demographic Forecasting. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Abstract - see sections on dealing with small death counts
. 2008. Duration of Parliamentary Governments
A statistical model, and related work, that united two warring scholarly literatures.
A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science, 34, Pp. 846–871.Abstract
. 1990. “
Transfers of Governmental Power: The Meaning of Time Dependence.” Comparative Political Studies, 27, Pp. 190–210.Abstract
. 1994. “
Aggregation Among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data.” Political Analysis, 9, Pp. 21–44.Abstract
. 2001. “Software
Includes several methods for count and duration analysis: . 2006. “Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software”.
Related Data
10 Million International Dyadic Events”. Publisher's Version Coding conflict and cooperation in international relations, 1990-2004, as evaluated by King and Lowe (2003)
. 2003. “