# Ecological Inference

Inferring individual behavior from group-level data: The first approach to incorporate both unit-level deterministic bounds and cross-unit statistical information, methods for 2x2 and larger tables, Bayesian model averaging, applications to elections, software.

## Methods

Summarizes the explosion of research in ecological inference that has occurred in the previous eight years, all following the key insight of models that include both deterministic and statistical information. . 2004. Ecological Inference: New Methodological Strategies. New York: Cambridge University Press.Abstract

Related research on aggregation, revealing the logical inconsistency of some popularly used models. . 2001. “Aggregation Among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data.” Political Analysis, 9, Pp. 21–44.Abstract

An extension of the work in the above book to use MCMC technology, making models for larger tables possible. . 1999. “Binomial-Beta Hierarchical Models for Ecological Inference.” Sociological Methods and Research, 28, Pp. 61–90.Abstract

The first ecological inference method to combine, in a single model, unit-level deterministic bounds with cross-unit statistical information, unifying two literatures that had been in conflict since 1953. . 1997. A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Outlines some of the history of ecological inference research, and introduces this new book. . 2004. “Information in Ecological Inference: An Introduction.” In Ecological Inference: New Methodological Strategies, . New York: Cambridge University Press.

This article uses MCMC technology, and a quicker approximation, to make ecological inferences using deterministic and statistical information in larger tables. . 2001. “Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Ecological Inference: The RxC Case.” Statistica Neerlandica, 55, Pp. 134–156.Abstract

Details of an application conducted for the New York Times, including extensions of ecological inference to Bayesian model averaging. . 2004. “Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election?” Perspectives on Politics, 2, Pp. 537–549.Abstract

. 2006. “Ecological Inference.” In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, , 2nd ed. London: Palgrave.Abstract

. 2008. “Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler.” Journal of Economic History, 68, 4, Pp. 996.Abstract

## Software

. 2006. “Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software”. includes several methods of ecological inference, and will soon include EI.

. 2003. “EzI: A(n Easy) Program for Ecological Inference”. Published as part of the Gauss Package by Aptech Systems, Kent, Washington, and as a stand-alone program called EzI: A(n Easy) Program for Ecological Inference, by Kenneth Benoit and me.

The above is published as . 2004. “EI: A Program for Ecological Inference.” Journal of Statistical Software, 11. Publisher's Version

## Data

The Record of American Democracy, 1984-1990.” Sociological Methods and Research, 26, Pp. 424–427. Publisher's Version

. 1998. “## Discussions and Extensions

. 1999. “The Future of Ecological Inference Research: A Reply to Freedman et al.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, Pp. 352-355.Abstract

A Consensus on Second Stage Analyses in Ecological Inference Models.” Political Analysis, 11, Pp. 86–94.Abstract

. 2003. “
Analyzing Second Stage Ecological Regressions.” Political Analysis, 11, Pp. 65-76.

. 2003. “
Finding New Information for Ecological Inference Models: A Comment on Jon Wakefield, 'Ecological Inference in 2X2 Tables'.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 167, Pp. 437.

. 2004. “
Isolating Spatial Autocorrelation, Aggregation Bias, and Distributional Violations in Ecological Inference.” Political Analysis, 10, Pp. 298–300.Abstract

. 2002. “
Geography, Statistics, and Ecological Inference.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 90, Pp. 601–606.Abstract

. 2000. “